![]() The graph above demonstrates that people are a big wild card in the climate system. This understanding is translated into complex computer software known as “global climate models.” They have developed a good understanding of the key ways that energy and water flow through the planet’s climate system, and how the different parts of the climate system interact with one another. They can generate global temperature projections because they have been painstakingly observing and measuring the main mechanisms that influence climate for more than a century. (Data processing by Jay Hnilo, CICS-NC, using data courtesy the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CMIP3.)Ĭlimate scientists are continually improving their understanding of how Earth’s climate system works. The shaded areas around each line indicate the statistical spread (one standard deviation) provided by individual model runs. The graph shows the average of a set of temperature simulations for the 20th century (black line), followed by projected temperatures for the 21st century based on a range of emissions scenarios (colored lines). Screenshot of a former interactive graph of future climate projections based on different human emission pathways. In addition to uncertainty about what those choices will be, there are also details we don’t yet know about how the climate will respond to continued increases in heat-trapping gases, particularly over longer time scales. The exact amount of warming that will occur in the coming century depends largely on the energy choices that we make now and in the next few decades, particularly since those choices directly influence how fast we put heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. The biggest source of added carbon dioxide is from people burning coal and other fossil fuels. The main reason for this temperature increase is carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping “greenhouse” gases that human activities produce. Results from a wide range of climate model simulations suggest that our planet’s average temperature could be between 2 and 9.7☏ (1.1 to 5.4☌) warmer in 2100 than it is today. This conclusion is based on scientists’ understanding of how the climate system works and on computer models designed to simulate Earth’s climate. ![]() Climate Resilience Toolkit.Īccording to climate scientists, our world is highly likely to continue to warm over this century and beyond. Your can view projections that have been downscaled to local areas in the Climate Explorer, part of the U.S. ![]() ![]() More recent projections of future climate are available in Chapter 4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report and as an interactive atlas. It's being left online to preserve the link in case this page was cited by as a reference. ![]()
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